It's that time of year again, time to jump out there and make my predictions for the upcoming season. This is the fourth installment of the series. As with any prediction, my success has been pretty hit and miss. As usual, I will walk through my expectations for each division in the league, and then name four teams from each conference I think likely to make the big game.
As always, I must disclose I am a personal fan of the Steelers, Patriots, and Packers. I do my best to not let that influence my analysis, but it's good to know. And, as I wrote last year, it also helps in understanding some terminology I might use. For example, to describe anything as "Viking-like", especially a defense, is a derogatory statement.
Here we go....
AFC EastNew England has dominated this division for pretty much the whole decade, winning the division title each year except 2002. Last season they made it all the way to the AFC title game, which they led 21-3 at the half and appeared all set for their fourth Super Bowl appearance (and win) in six seasons. Then the defense collapsed in the second half and the Colts managed to pull out the game, and the Lombardi. The Patriots have made the biggest splash in the off-season this year, with high profile additions like Adalius Thomas and Randy Moss, making them the odds-on preseason favorite to win the title this year.
If everything falls together the way New England's brass obviously hopes it will, this should be a very good team. Tom Brady has never had a receiving corps this talented. If he was able to win three Super Bowls and have multiple seasons with over 4000 yards passing with the guys he had then, he should really turn it on this year. But there are several things that observers seem to be overlooking or forgetting in the rush to anoint the Pats.
- The biggest improvement with the team has been at receiver. Last year's receiving corps was pretty nondescript and made up of a bunch of guys who had never played in New England before. And they made it to within a few minutes of a Super Bowl appearance with that corps. What cost them the title last year was a defense that is getting older by the day at linebacker and secondary. Yes, they picked up linebacker Thomas and drafted corner Meriweather. But the starting group of four linebackers will still be pretty old. And with Samuel threatening to follow in Branch's footsteps with a holdout, they haven't really upgraded there either. So while they've presumably improved the offense, the main problem they had last year in the playoffs was not adequately addressed. Now, it's only fair to point out that the defense I've just maligned was 2nd in the league last year in points allowed, so they clearly could still play. But it's still a bit on the optimistic side that they can continue doing so.
- Speaking of the receiving corps, a lot was made last year that the receivers were all new except Troy Brown. Guess what. That's true again this year. One has to expect the top three to be Moss, Stallworth, and Weckler, none of whom played for New England last year. With Brown having been cut again, and not re-signed as of this writing, last year's newbies are now the seasoned veterans, being in their second year.
- Randy Moss. What kind of player is he going to be? Will he be the superstar of a few years ago? Will he play hard every down, unlike he famously did in Minnesota? Will he be a distraction?
- With Corey Dillon gone, Maroney becomes the top running back for the team. He had a good season last year, but that was a year when he split carries with Dillon, and in fact was not even the workhorse of the backfield. Now, Maroney has to become an every down back and go from 500 yards rushing last year to somewhere in he 1200 yards this year. It's an unknown that he can do that, and with Dillon gone there's no one to fall back on.
These are just questions. Patriot brass hopes and assumes the defense will play as well as it did last year, that the new receivers will be assimilated as well as last year's were, that Moss will be productive and buy into the system without being a distraction, and that Maroney can step up and be a good back. If all that happens, New England is clearly the team to beat in the division, and in fact the league. With the offense these changes will hopefully allow, they could be a top 10 team in both offense and defense.
Even if not all of those things come to pass, New England is still the class of the division and I don't see anybody seriously challenging them there. The Jets continue to be a solid #2 team and wildcard contender. The Bills and the Dolphins continue to work out their respective messes at quarterback.
AFC NorthAs I wrote
last year, this should be an entertaining division. The Bengals disappointed last season with streaky play resulting in winning streaks followed by long losing streaks. Such would be expected from a young team just starting to hit its stride. I expect a more mature Bengal team this year to be the team to beat in the division. That is, if they can keep enough players out of jail.
The Steelers came off their surprising Super Bowl win with a disappointing season as well, limping along to 8-8. They still have some good talent and haven't had too many key losses. But the one key loss they did have was coach Cowher. Mike Tomlin is a total unknown, and we have to expect some rough spots as the team transitions to a new man, particularly with a roster still geared to Cowher's preferences rather than Tomlin's. While I think they will have a winning season, I cannot see them contending for the division title. Of course, being a wild-card didn't hurt them too much in 2005.
I don't really like Baltimore. I know they won the division last year and secured the second seed in the AFC playoffs, but the division ended up being pretty weak. Like New England, they face the continual aging of key players like Ray Lewis and Steve McNair. Against a rejuvenated Bengal team, I don't see them doing much.
Cleveland, well can we say. They continue to try to find a roster of guys who can produce. Contend? I don't think so.
AFC WestThis has been a tough division to pick in the recent past, but no more. San Diego owned the division last year and will continue to do so. They are perhaps the most talented team in the league. But, like Pittsburgh, they face an overhaul of the coaching staff and that leads one to expect some rough spots. And Norv Turner hasn't exactly inspired confidence anywhere he's gone as a head coach. But with all that talent, and a chip on their shoulders at not even winning a playoff game when they were favored with the Super Bowl, they should be very successful this year.
Denver is the only team that could conceivably challenge the Chargers. But they've had a tumultuous off-season with multiple players dying. On top of that, they don't have the talent San Diego has, particularly at key positions like running back and quarterback.
Kansas City joins Oakland in the ranks of total rebuilding, and neither will be much of a force.
AFC SouthThe Colts are obviously the team with the big targets on their backs this year. After three straight seasons of playing second fiddle and losing to the eventual champions New England (2003, 2004) and Pittsburgh (2005), they managed to bring home the trophy last year. Because of that history, though, they remind of me the 2002 Bucs and the 2005 Steelers: teams that finally managed to win the Super Bowl after several seasons of knocking on the door and being disappointed. Of course, neither of those teams followed up their big seasons with anything special, Tampa with a losing year in 2003 and Pittsburgh at 8-8 in 2006.
I think the reason is simple. After so many seasons of struggling to get over the hump, as it were, having succeeded the team lost its edge and got complacent. Watching Pittsburgh last year, there just wasn't the fire, the edge that they had had in previous years.
Indy will face the same struggle, a struggle that is exacerbated by many key personnel losses since the big game. We're already seeing players skipping workouts and Manning having to work the phones to try to get everyone working again. The team was already in decline relative to their great years prior to 2006. Now player losses combined with complacency will take the team down a peg or two.
That said they will still win the division. Like the East, this division is a one horse show. They just won't be the dominant, elite AFC team they've been.
The Jags have been the only team who could contend the last couple of years, but like the Jets they are a solid #2 team and wild-card contender. The offense just isn't good enough. Now, there is talk they might go after Daunte Culpepper, and if he can finally recover from his injuries and if he can regain his old form, he would have to be the starting quarterback and they would suddenly become something of a dangerous team. But those are big if's, and he's still a Dolphin anyway.
The Titans ended the season strong, winning six of the last seven games to get to 8-8, including wins over both the Colts and the Jaguars. I'm sure they will be a dark horse candidate on many lists to surprise, and certainly they have to be considered to have the potential. But they are a young team. Vince Young is obviously young, going into just his second year and first as the starter. He had a strong season last year and was a big part of their run at the end of the year. But he still has a ways to go. They are young at running back. They are experienced at wide receiver, but not with great talent. The defense isn't so hot. No one can look past them and they certainly have a strong potential upside. But I still can't quite see them pushing past the Colts for the division.
The Texans, well they continue to try.
NFC EastThis is a fun division, by NFC standards. The division typically sees multiple teams battling it out for the title. Last year, the Eagles were the surprise of the NFC, taking the division title from a Cowboy team that looked to have it in the bag, and with their star starting quarterback on the sidelines. Are they back to being the class of the division? It's hard to tell. Clearly the team has questions about McNabb, having had an injury problem the last several years. This is a team that needs a solid backup, but they made little effort to re-sign Garcia, and the rest of the depth chart does not inspire confidence.
We can eliminate Washington and New York, I think. Neither team is all that strong. The 'Skins have lots of questions about their surprisingly anemic offense, and a new, QB to boot. The Giants face a season with their coach under the gun to deliver, continuing questions about Eli Manning, and the loss of Tiki Barber who the team did not really replace. It's hard to see either team making much of a run.
So, what about Dallas? They looked good much of last year, and had Romo as the feel-good story of the year. But he faded down the stretch and the Cowboys let a seemingly secure division title get away. So they certainly have something to prove. And they have to do so with a new coaching staff, which as I've already seems guaranteed to lead to problems in the short run.
Overall, I have to go with Dallas again. They should be better on defense than Philly, and their receivers are significantly better. Certainly McNabb is a far superior quarterback than Romo, so far, but you cannot rely on him being able to go 16 games, and like I said their depth chart is not great at that position.
NFC NorthThe Bears are obviously the favorites here. Rex Grossman took a lot of hits from writers last season, including this one. But what must be remembered about Grossman is this: it was essentially his first season as a starter. His career to that point was so marred by injury that just playing 5 straight games was a major achievement. He hadn't played a full season in several years, so one had to question his ability to play at a consistent level for a full season, then the post-season. But before he fell apart, he had a fantastic first month. Chicago, a team known for defense, had one of the top
offenses that first month. So, clearly Grossman can play. The question is, can he play at that level for 16 games? I'm not sure. But given the strength of their defense and the lack of any serious competition, they seem a pretty solid bet to win the division.
I took the Lions as a potential dark horse last year, and that didn't exactly pan out. But I was right in predicting that Kitna would be a good quarterback in Martz's system and that the offense would be productive. I think they will be even better this year, even though they shocked the world and went a totally new direction in the draft: taking a wide receiver with an early first round pick. OK, no more sarcasm. With more familiarity with that offense, Kitna should have an even better season and the Lions will be exciting. But the defense is still abysmal, and it's hard to see them topping Chicago. But if the Bears should falter, look for the Lions to sneak in and take the title.
The Vikings are a shambles on offense. They will presumably be more productive than the 2006 Raiders, but I don't know that that's saying a whole heck of a lot.
The Packers, I don't know. Too many holes. Another 8-8 would be a decent result.
NFC WestI hate this division. It stinks! I've picked the Cardinals two years in a row, thinking that all the offensive talent would translate into points and therefore wins. But with the Arizona brass ignoring offensive line for years, that didn't happen. The Cards seem like they've finally addressed that hole this year, hiring Russ Grimm to be the line coach. Is that enough to make me pick them again? No way. I officially give up on them. (The last time I gave up on an NFC West team, they won't to the Super Bowl.)
The Rams aren't really going anywhere for a while except down.
The division seems to come down to Seattle and San Francisco. I like where the 49ers are going, at least on offense. Defense still leaves something to be desired. Smith is developing nicely at quarterback, Frank Gore had a very good season last year, and they have some talent are receiver and tight end. I really think they could move up the ranks this year and become a contender again, particularly if they can tighten up that defense a bit, a defense that was worst in the NFL last year in points allowed.
The Seahawks won the division again last year. Even in a weak division they only mustered a 9-7 record, but it was enough. Former MVP Alexander had a pretty bland season last year, slowed by injury to his foot, an injury which might not be fully healed. Hasslebeck didn't have a great season either, throwing a lot of interceptions and also missing time due to injury. They've been the top team in the division for a while, but the primary reason is that they have been the only team be consistently not so bad. In a weak division they've been the best. But with the 49ers, who swept the Seahawks last season improving and seemingly the rising force in the division, I have to go with them over the Seahawks.
NFC South
This is another weak division. (The NFC prefix is a dead give-away.) The Saints were the surprise team of 2006, rising from the bottom of the league to the NFC title game. The gamble with Drew Brees paid off big time as he emerged as a top quarterback and led a very good offense. Of course, it helps that Colston was another surprise for the team at receiver, and that the team managed to balance Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Seldom have so many new additions all contributed so convincingly.
The rest of the division is nothing special. There don't seem to be any truly bad teams, assuming they can stay healthy. But nobody all that good either.
In Atlanta, the buzz surrounding Michael Vick seems to have finally died down. He's finally be judged purely as a quarterback, and found lacking. And need I mention is off field problems this offseason? In an attempt to finally address their glaring hole at wide receiver, the Falcons picked up former rival Joe Horn from the Saints. He's been a good player, but he's getting older, and missed six games last season due to injury. Horn might be able to produce and give the Falcons a legitimate passing threat, but at this point that has to be considered hopeful speculation. Without that, the Falcons are again a pure running team. If Vick's legal problems take him off the field, they are really in trouble because they got rid of their capable backup Schaub. And with Vick running so much, injury is a constant worry for the team. I can't even see them building on the 7-9 record they posted last year.
The Panthers? I just think it's not there for them anymore. The offense isn't all that productive anymore. Delhomme seems to have peaked a couple of years ago. It's not that he's bad, he's just not great and doesn't appear to be getting closer to being so. The defense is still good, though there are questions about Kris Jenkins. Carolina can win games and even challenge New Orleans, but I just don't seem them as much more than wild-card contenders at this point.
The Bucs were a disappointment last year. The injury to Simms obviously didn't help, particularly as it exposed the lack of depth at the position they had after letting former starter Brian Griese go. But even before that they were not really asserting themselves as many had expected. The offense disappointed, with 2005's young stars all tanking in 2006. The defense, for so long the standard bearer of the team, ended up ranked in the bottom half of the league for the first time in who knows how long. That defense relies on too many aging stars. With Jeff Garcia at quarterback, they ought to have much better play on offense, obviously. But can guys like Clayton and Williams get back on track? One thinks so with Garcia there. Like Carolina, the Bucs are not a bad team and can challenge, but relying on a 37 year old QB new to the team does not inspire confidence, even if he did play well last year. Wildcard? Maybe. Division? No.
Super BowlIt's far too soon to actually pick a Super Bowl matchup, so as always I will pick the four top teams in each conference, one of whom is most likely to make the big game.
AFC: New England, San Diego, Cincinnati, Tennessee
The first three are obvious, but the Titans, a team I didn't even pick to win the division? Well, I really can't see the Colts being true contenders this year. I do think they'll win the division, but not do much in the playoffs. The Titans, while I'm not picking them to win the division, have a lot of potential.
If they can translate that end-of-season momentum into something this season, they could well come out of nowhere. If that happens, they will be a stronger contender than the Colts.
Everyone will pick the Patriots for reasons already stated. I won't be any different. At this point one has to give the New England brain trust the credit the deserve and assume they know what they are doing in acquiring people. Besides, for the first time in a few years, they haven't had any significant departures, either players or coaches. So they have to be the team in the driver's seat. They have the advantage of playing both the Chargers and the Bengals during the regular season, and so have a good degree of control over their own playoff seeding destiny. Of course, that also means they have a pretty tough first month of the season.
I really like San Diego, but with so much turnover on the coaching staff (headlined by head coach and both coordinators), and the fact that the guys brought in to replace the outgoing coaches are not necessarily an improvement, I have to expect something of a falloff from last season. But still, they have to be considered the primary challenger to New England.
I really like the Bengal offense. One of the best. But the defense being what it is, they are like the Colts of recent years. They will contend, be a dangerous team, and if things fall right might even with the big one. But they would need help to get there. But still, with that offense, there are few teams in the regular season who will beat them.
NFC: Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, Detroit
The Bears and Saints are obvious, having met in last year's conference title game. Assuming Grossman can take a few steps forward as a quarterback this year and play the whole season solidly, they have to be considered the class of the NFC. As I wrote above, they have the potential to be a top 10 team in both offense and defense. And with their built-in home field advantage, they are tough to beat in January. Ask the Saints.
The Saints are an outstanding team, too. With all the attention on offense last year, what's often overlooked is their defense was ranked #11. So they too have the potential to a double top 10 team. They are now experienced, well coached, and just plain good. The biggest problem is that they play in a dome in one of the warmest and most humid locations in the league, which puts them at great disadvantage should they have to travel in the playoffs. As was shown last year.
I'm not really sure about Dallas, but I need four teams so somebody has to be there. They are a good team, and could have won a playoff game last year. They are better than just about anyone else in the NFC, so if disaster should strike the Saints or the Bears, or both, the Cowboys certainly look like a team that could step into the breach.
Now, the Lions. As I said, I need four teams for this section. I've already reached with the third team, so this is a real stretch (though not as much as picking Tennessee for the AFC). But I do like the potential of the Lion offense. If Chicago should falter, that offense should bring them the division title. And with the lack of strong defenses in the NFC, they would be certainly viable candidates to challenge for the conference title.
Labels: NFL, NFL 2007